KAIFENG, China As this millennium dawns, New York City is the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth. But before we New Yorkers become too full of ourselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China.
Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in 1000. And if you’ve never heard of it, that’s a useful warning for Americans - as the Chinese headline above puts it, in a language of the future that many more Americans should start learning, “glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds.”
As the world’s only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it’s striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.
My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Changan, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above.
Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London’s population then was about 15,000.
An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.
Kaifeng’s stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.
As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000, but many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader.
“China is booming now,” said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. “Give us a few decades and we’ll catch up with the U.S., even pass it.”
She’s right. The U.S. has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass us in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.
So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng?
One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years.
A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world - and that was the beginning of the end.
I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can’t confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans’ lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.
Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn’t even write his name - and yet his progeny were different.
“Two of my grandsons are now in university,” he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.
Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.
From The NewYork Times
在《纽约时报》瞎看新闻时，发现22日一篇以中文标题发表的文章，名称为《从开封到纽约–辉煌如过眼烟云(Glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds)》，这在以英文为主体的国际报纸上，还是相当罕见的（个人判断）。作者为著名专栏作家克里斯托夫 (Nicholas D. Kristof)。
公元前2000年世界最重要城市是伊拉克的乌尔(Ur)，
公元前1500年世界最重要的城市或许是埃及的底比斯(Thebes)，
公元前1000年，沒有一个城市可在世界上称雄，虽然有人提到黎巴嫩的西顿(Sidon)，
公元前500年可能是波斯(Persia)的波斯波利斯(Persepolis)，
公元1年是罗马，
公元500年可能是中国的长安，
公元1000年是中国的开封，
公元1500年是意大利的佛罗隆萨(Florence)，
公元2000年是纽约，
公元2500年，以上这些城市可能都榜上无名…
那么纽约应该从开封身上吸取哪些教训呢？
第一，保持科技领先和合理的经济政策极为重要。古代中国繁荣的原因之一，是采用促进经济和贸易的政策，在铁犁、印刷术、纸币等方面进行技术革新。当然古代中国对贸易和商业不够重视。
第二，傲慢自大非常危险。古代中国曾认为无需向外国学习任何东西，这是衰败的开始。
在上述这两个方面，我都很为美国担心。美国目前经济管理松懈，无法解決农产品贴补或长期预算赤字等问题，美国科技虽然处于强势，但目前中小学生的数学和科学属于二流水平，美国人对外国缺乏兴趣，与毫不松懈、生机勃勃、意志坚定的中国人形成鲜明对照。
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